By Miguel do Rosário, O Cafezinho (ocafezinho.com)
One of the greatest enigmas of cosmology is the so-called “three-body problem,” where three planets or stars exert mutual gravitational influences. Understanding the equations that govern the relationship between these celestial bodies is considered one of the most complex calculations in the universe.
Chinese science fiction author Liu Cixin took this mystery and spun it into his novel The Three-Body Problem, which became a runaway success, inspiring series and films. But here in São Paulo, we’ve got our own version of the three-body problem that might be even more complex than the cosmological one.
The three main contenders—Boulos, Nunes, and Marçal—each possess an astonishing degree of political and electoral solidity, but for vastly different reasons.
Boulos is the candidate of the young, the enlightened middle class, university students, the left, and Lula. He’s a solid figure, consistently holding 20-30% in every poll, never falling out of the top two spots.
The current mayor, Nunes, has built a formidable coalition of right-wing and centrist forces, becoming the candidate of the establishment, the older generation, and the moderate conservatives.
Now, in cosmology, even the “two-body problem” presents a tough mathematical challenge. But it pales in comparison to the chaos created by three great masses orbiting each other. Enter the third body in São Paulo’s electoral cosmos: Pablo Marçal. The candidate of the “hardcore far-right,” Marçal is a figure who mirrors the Milei phenomenon in Argentina. He’s thrown a wrench into the São Paulo race by tapping into an ideological vacuum in the capital’s contest.
With Boulos tempering his message—careful not to give Nunes an opening to turn the election into a battle of “moderate versus radical,” a move that could advantage the mayor—and with Nunes distancing himself from the extreme fringes of bolsonarismo to avoid losing moderate votes to Boulos, Marçal has seized an enormous opportunity. He’s carved out space to position himself as the “anti-system” candidate, drawing support both from young voters hungry for disruption and from diehard bolsonaristas eager to cast a defiant, anti-Lula, anti-left vote.
And just when you thought things couldn’t get more chaotic, along comes a fourth body in São Paulo’s electoral cosmos: Federal Deputy Tábata Amaral. Her steady polling between 8% and 11%—depending on the survey—has firmly established her as a significant player in the political landscape. She will almost certainly play a decisive role in the second round.
Later today, at 4 PM, the latest Datafolha poll will be published in Folha and Globo. In the last survey, released last week on September 26th, the top two candidates were tied, with Nunes at 27% and Boulos at 25%. Marçal was right behind with 21%.
What new polls will emerge? Stay tuned after the graph.
Several more surveys are expected before São Paulo, the country’s most important city, heads to the polls. We’re looking at another Datafolha, with interviews conducted on October 4th and released the same day, a Friday. This final Datafolha poll carries a price tag of R$ 159,000, covered by Folha and Globo.
We’ll also see a Quaest poll released the following day, Saturday, with interviews starting on October 4th. That one cost R$ 238,200, paid for by Globo.
Finally, on election eve, Saturday, October 5th, the Atlas Intel poll will drop, paid for by the institute itself at a price of R$ 35,000.
Some observations on the latest Datafolha:
We’re beginning to see signs of Boulos gaining ground with young voters, a potentially promising development for the candidate. According to the last Datafolha, released on September 26th, Boulos led decisively among voters aged 16 to 24, polling at 27%, up two points.
Meanwhile, Nunes dipped two points, falling from 23% to 21%, tying with Marçal, who was also polling at 21%.
Tábata Amaral performed impressively in this segment, climbing from 8% to 13%, apparently drawing voters away from Datena, who plummeted from 10% to 5%.
However, Boulos faces challenges with older age groups. Among voters aged 25 to 34, Marçal holds the lead with 29%, five points ahead of Boulos at 24%. Nunes trails with 17%.
Tábata managed to secure 10% in this demographic.
Marçal also made significant gains among voters aged 35 to 44, where he led with 28%, followed by Nunes at 24%, and Boulos at 22%.
Nunes remains strongest with voters over 60, where he saw a bump, polling at 33%. Boulos, on the other hand, dipped in this demographic, now sitting at 28%. Marçal struggles with older voters, capturing only 13% of that segment.
Conclusion
An analysis of age demographics highlights the anxiety gripping all the campaigns, but particularly Nunes and Boulos, both of whom face the threat of being overtaken by Marçal and missing the runoff altogether.
The possibility of a second round between two right-wing candidates—Nunes and Marçal—is now a real scenario, just as much as any other outcome involving the top three contenders.
